By Robert T. McGee
Absolutely the and relative functionality of varied asset sessions is systematically on the topic of macroeconomic developments. during this new ebook, Robert McGee presents an intensive advisor to every degree of the enterprise cycle and analyzes the funding implications utilizing real-world examples linking monetary dynamics to funding effects.
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Additional info for Applied Financial Macroeconomics and Investment Strategy: A Practitioner’s Guide to Tactical Asset Allocation
9) tends to occur one-third to halfway into a business expansion. From this vantage point, the economy was one-third to halfway through its expansion in March 2014. In baseball parlance, that’s the third or fourth inning. Eventually, in the later innings expectations for the future begin to lag behind current conditions as they heat up. Since World War II, expansions have been longer and recessions shorter, less extreme, and much less frequent than before World War II. Long expansions, like those of the 1980s and 1990s, set records for longevity, lasting about a decade in each case.
On average, more education means less unemployment and a much higher lifetime income. This reflects the changing technology and skill set requirements in the modern workplace. It also is a natural result of increased globalization of the economy. The United States has a disproportionate share of the world’s highly educated people. Their value is greatly enhanced by globalization, which on the other hand is driving rising inequality not just in the United States but throughout the developed world.
9 Expectations Tend to Lag Current Conditions Going into Recession The Conference Board Consumer Confidence Expectations Minus Present Situation 140 120 100 80 60 40 20 0 –20 –40 –60 –80 –100 80 83 86 89 92 95 98 01 04 07 10 13 Source: The Conference Board/Haver Analytics. Data as of August 2014. going into recessions, this measure shows that they do recognize the economy is unlikely to get much better relatively. At this stage, they would be content if things stayed the same. Unfortunately, “staying the same” means not growing, which is what happens in a recession.